humanbkz

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Dilema Impossible Trinity dalam Kebijakan Moneter Indonesia pada Masa Taper Tantrum 2013-2014: Trade-off antara Stabilitas Nilai Tukar, Arus Modal, dan Independensi Bank Indonesia

Ada satu hal yang saya pelajari dari mengamati bagaimana orang tua saya mengelola keuangan rumah tangga: Anda tidak pernah bisa memiliki semuanya sekaligus. Ingin rumah yang lebih besar, tabungan yang tumbuh, sekaligus liburan tahunan ke luar kota? Pilih dua. Yang ketiga harus mengalah, cepat atau lambat. Prinsip sederhana ini, bahwa sumber daya yang terbatas memaksa kita memilih prioritas, ternyata juga berlaku pada skala yang jauh lebih besar: kebijakan moneter sebuah negara. Bedanya, kalau rumah tangga yang salah pilih prioritas paling-paling menunda liburan setahun, negara yang salah pilih bisa menghadapi mata uangnya ambruk dalam hitungan minggu. Inilah yang secara kasar terjadi pada Indonesia pada pertengahan 2013, ketika Ben Bernanke, Ketua The Fed saat itu, mengucapkan satu kalimat di depan Kongres Amerika Serikat yang kemudian dikenang sebagai pemicu salah satu guncangan finansial terbesar di negara berkembang dalam dekade itu. Ia hanya mengatakan bahwa The Fed mungkin akan m...

The Plumbing of the World

On the twelve layers between Washington and a warung in Bekasi, the bond market that bosses everyone, and why the bottom is never quite as powerless as it feels For the past few months I have been writing about the tide. In April I argued that the water was going out on Indonesia, and I spent most of that essay worrying about what we were about to find out. In June, when the rupiah had touched Rp18,000 for the first time, I wrote again, partly to confess that the worry had not been misplaced, and partly to say that a little patience was finally warranted. Both essays were about symptoms. A weakening currency. Thinning reserves. A central bank spending billions to hold a line that the world kept pushing against. Symptoms are useful things to write about. They tell you something is wrong. What they do not tell you is why, and lately I have felt the pull to stop describing the weather and start drawing the map. Because here is the uncomfortable truth about a tide. We do not control the ...

When the Tide Returns : On trust, the lag in policy, and why a little optimism is finally warranted

There is a line I have quoted before, and I will lean on it once more because it has not stopped being true. You only find out who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out. A few weeks ago I wrote that the tide was going out on Indonesia, and I spent most of that essay worrying about what we were about to find out. The rupiah had just broken through Rp17,300. Reserves were thinning. The ratings agencies had begun to frown. I argued then for the unglamorous things, a measured rate hike, a patient rescaling of the budget, and a single voice between the government and Bank Indonesia, because those are the things that decide whether a country is wearing anything when the water leaves. The water has gone out further since then. As I write, the rupiah sits at roughly Rp18,000 to the dollar, a level it touched for the first time this past week. So this is, in part, a confession that my worries were not misplaced. But it is also something I did not expect to be writing so soon. It is an...

When the Tide Goes Out: Notes on a Currency Under Pressure

Some thoughts on Indonesia, on what 1998 and 2013 might still have to teach us, and on why the boring answers are usually the right ones There is a line I keep returning to whenever markets get nervous. You only find out who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out. It is a glib phrase, but the principle behind it has stayed with me for years. When money is cheap and capital is abundant, every economy looks competent. Every government looks prudent. Every central bank looks wise. It is only when the world tightens its belt that we discover which countries built their houses on rock and which on sand. The tide is going out on Indonesia right now. I find myself thinking a great deal about what we are about to find out. By late April 2026, the rupiah had broken through Rp17,300 per dollar. Foreign reserves had fallen to USD 148.2 billion, the lowest since mid-2024. Bank Indonesia had spent USD 8.3 billion in the first quarter alone defending the currency. Moody's and Fitch had r...

The Iranian Regime: Thank You, Netanyahu and Trump

How a Foreign Bombardment Rescued a Dying Theocracy from Its Own People To the observers of geopolitical folly: In my years of studying how value is created and destroyed, I have learned that the most expensive mistakes are not the ones born of ignorance. They are the ones born of certainty. When someone is absolutely sure they are right, they tend to bet the whole farm. And when the farm in question happens to be the Middle East, the bill arrives not in dollars alone but in lives, stability, and consequences that compound for generations. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. The stated objectives were ambitious: dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, neutralize its ballistic missile capabilities, and—though officials danced around the word—effect regime change. The opening salvo killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, along with dozens of senior officials. By any military scorecard, this was a spectacular opening move. ...

Why Indonesia Should Take PT Len Public: A Letter on Defense Independence and National Sovereignty

Let me tell you a story about two kinds of dependence and why one of them could cost Indonesia its sovereignty. The first kind is the dependence we choose. When you buy a Coca-Cola, you're dependent on their formula, their distribution, their brand. That's fine. You're getting something you value, and you can always switch to Pepsi if Coke disappoints you. The second kind is the dependence that others impose on you. That's the kind where you have no choice, no alternatives, and no leverage. That's the dangerous kind. And right now, Indonesia has that dangerous kind of dependence when it comes to its national defense. The Wake-Up Call from Caracas On January 3, 2026, something happened in Venezuela that should make every Indonesian policymaker lose sleep. The United States conducted a military operation that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Now, I'm not here to debate the rights and wrongs of that operation. What interests me and what shou...