Some thoughts on Indonesia, on what 1998 and 2013 might still have to teach us, and on why the boring answers are usually the right ones There is a line I keep returning to whenever markets get nervous. You only find out who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out. It is a glib phrase, but the principle behind it has stayed with me for years. When money is cheap and capital is abundant, every economy looks competent. Every government looks prudent. Every central bank looks wise. It is only when the world tightens its belt that we discover which countries built their houses on rock and which on sand. The tide is going out on Indonesia right now. I find myself thinking a great deal about what we are about to find out. By late April 2026, the rupiah had broken through Rp17,300 per dollar. Foreign reserves had fallen to USD 148.2 billion, the lowest since mid-2024. Bank Indonesia had spent USD 8.3 billion in the first quarter alone defending the currency. Moody's and Fitch had r...